Tuesday, January 26, 2010

2010 Quezon City politics


Doy Cinco

May mahigit kumulang na 1.2 milyon ang rehistradong botante ng Quezon City. May 70% ang voter's turnout at may kabuuang 142 malalaking barangay, kung saan ang 2nd District (535,432) ang may pinakamalaki. Pumapangalawa ang 4rt District, 205,909; 1st District - 205,245 at 3rd District (145,570), ang Cubao area at ang pinakamaliit.

Ang Quezon City (QC) kung saan matatagpuan ang Diliman Republic ang itinuturing sentro ng NGO, academic at civil society community ng Pilipinas. Dito matatagpuan ang kanila-kanilang sentrong himpilan na nakapaikot sa dalawang malaki at kilalang unibersidad, ang UP at Ateneo. Nakabalagbag sa kahabaan ng Edsa ang dalawang sentrong kampong pangseguridad ng bansa; ang Camp Crame ng PNP at Kampo Aguinaldo ng Sandatahang Lakas ng Pilipinas (AFP).

Masasabing sentro ng aktibismo, anarkismo, pugad ng makabago at lumang rebolusyunaryo (kaya lang zero-minimal local electoral intervention) ang QC. Dito rin nakahimpil ang konserbatibong Iglesia ni Kristo (INK), ilang muslim community at spiritual religious movements ng bansa. Ang QC ay itinuturing sentro ng artista (showbiz), pangkulturang sining at mass media (broadcast) ng bansa. Dito nakahimpil ang halos lahat ng malalaking broadcast network (ABS-CBN / GMA 7) ng bansa.

Na sa QC matatagpuan ang malaking bilang ng middle class community at malalaking settlement ng urban poor communities sa bansa. Sa QC matatagpuan ang mga government agencies ng estado kasama ang Batasang Pambansa (Parliament Bldg) at La Mesa Dam na pinanggagalingan ng maiinum tubig ng Metro Manila, ilan parte ng Bulacan at Laguna. Nasa QC matatagpuan ang naglalakihang mga palasyong tirahan ng halos lahat ng siga-sigang pulitiko sa bansa.

Ang QC ang pinakamayamang LGU sa Pilipinas at pinakamalaking lunsod sa Kalakhang Maynila. Ayon sa kasalukyang Mayor SB, "may magandang planong pangkaunlaran sa hinaharap na kayang tapatan raw ang central business district ng Makati." Ito ang kadahilanan kung bakit atat na atat makontrol ng tatlong magkakatunggali ang mayoralty post ng lunsod.

Mayoralty race

Llamado at mataas ang voter's preference at market votes ni Bistek, dating Lakas-CMD at ngayo'y manok ng Liberal Party kung ikukumpara sa dalawang kalaban. Dahil incumbent Vice Mayor, nagagamit ni Bistek ang resources ng QC govt sa pagpapalakas ng makinarya sa mga barangay. Maalalang nalagay sa alanganin si Bistek sa iskandalong pinasabog ni Mike Defensor sa paratang katiwalian ng halos 10 taong panunungkulan ni Bistek.

Maaring makuha ni Bistek ang District 1 at 4 at makatabla sa District 2 at 3. Kahit sabihing balwarte ng mga Defensor ang 3rd District, hindi makasasasapat ang boto nito upang pagtakpan ang inaasahang malaking kalamangan ni Bistek. Sa Vice Mayoralty race, halos nakasisiguro na si Joy Belmonte, ang anak ni Mayor Sonny Belmonte. (Larawan Herbert "Bistek" Bautista and Mike Defensor: www.pinoylife.jp/img/news/herbert.jpg and fil.wikipilipinas.org/.../250px-Mikedefensor.jpg)

Congressional Race

Sa kabuuang apat, mainit ang labanan sa dalawang distrito ng QC; Sigurado na ang incumbent Rep Bingbong Crisologo sa 1st District. Maliban kay Vivienne TAN, anak ng Taipan na si Lucio Tan, wala ng malakas na kalaban si Bingbong. Tatlo ang maglalaban sa 2nd District; si ex-Councilor Winnie Castelo (LP), ang beteranong pulitiko't kabilang sa SB Team at kapatid ng last termer na si Rep Nanete Daza ng 4rt District; ex-councilor Allan Francisco at ang abugado't aktibistang pamangkin ni Mayor SB na pinaghinalaang sangkot sa Magdalo rebellion, si Kit Belmonte (Independent). Llamado si Winnie Castelo. Kaya lang, hindi siya nakasisiguro sa makinaryang itinanim ng kanyang katunggaling si Kit Belmonte.

Three corner fight sa pagitan ni Bolet Banal, Franz Pumaren at incumbent Rep Mat Defensor sa 3rd District. Mahihirapan talunin ng dating topnotcher Councilor Bolet Banal ang incumbent trapo candidate na si Mat Defensor (Lakas-KAMPI), ang ama ni Mike at masugid na tagasuporta ng administrasyong Arroyo sa Kongreso. Hawak ni Mat ang traditonal network na pinagmumulan ng kanyang boto, samantalang nasa panig naman ni Bolet Banal ang mga umuusbong na kilusan at organisasyon ng mamamayan sa lugar.

Maaring mas mataas ang vote conversion factor ni Banal kung ikukumpara sa nakakadalawang terminong si Mat Defensor. Walang dudang mananalo si Bolet sa middle class community ng 3rd District, kaya lang di hamak na mas malaki ang bilang ng botante sa informal sectors o mga urban poor community na ilang dekadang pinanghawakan ng pamilyang Defensor. Halos walang kalaban si Mayor Sa 4rt District, halos walang mabigat na kalaban si Mayor SB Belmonte (last term/graduated na bilang Mayor). Mukhang target na muling panghawakan ni SB ang Speaker of the House ng 15th Congress.

Epekto sa Presidential election campaign

Balwarte ng NOYNOY-MAR ang QC. Kung babalikan, pumang-apat si Noynoy Aquino at naungusan nito si Manny Villar sa senate race noong 2007 election at nanguna naman si Mar Roxas sa Senate electoral race noong 2004 national election sa QC.

Tulad ng kalakhang Manila, itinuturing critical sa Arroyo Administration ang QC. Mahihirapang maungusan ni Villar ang lakas ng ground at trench war ng Noynoy Aquino election campaign sa QC.

Aasahang hindi lalayo ang resulta ng mga survey sa Pulse at SWS (40-60% para kay Noynoy/Mar) sa nasyunal sa magiging kahihinatnan ng kampanya sa QC. Mula kay Bistek-Joy at Mike Defensor-Iko Melendez tandem, tiyak na magga-gravitate sa Noynoy-Mar campaign ang mga kandidatong nagpapanakbuhan sa QC bunsod ng malaking impluwensyang naipundar ng Tita Cory sa ilang dekadang lokal na kapangyarihan ng mga Belmonte.

Titiyaking maidedeliver ng SB Team ang malaking boto para sa Noynoy-Mar LP presidential bet. Inaasahang bibitbitin din ng ibang mga kadidato sa mayoralty position tulad ni Mike Defensor, ang kanyang Amang si Mat na dating mga kasapi ng LP ang NoyMar presidential tandem. (Larawan: Mayor Sonny Belmonte)

Aasahang magbibigay ng malaking kalamangan (50 – 60%) ang Noynoy/Mar sa halos lahat ng distrito ng QC. Samantalang ang tantyang 20-25% boto ni Villar/Loren ay maaring manggaling sa 2nd District, ang may pinakamalaking informal sektor sa bansa, kung saan ang incumbent Rep na si Annie Susano at kasali sa mayoralty race ay naging kinatawan ng anim na taon.


16 comments:

Anonymous said...

hi doy. is der a way to get in touch with you?

my number is 0917 820 820 8.

re: politics in quezon city

jm

doy said...

P're, ok lang. pero, ano ang agenda at kailangan mo sa QC politics?

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QC Vote Wisely said...

Hi Doy. Can I link this article to the Facebook group: "QC Vote Wisely"? The group is a non-profit movement by QC residents, aiming to recognize deserving candidates and to empower people to be smart voters this coming elections. Councilor Banal is one of the candidates we are endorsing. Your article will be very helpful to voters, especially first time voters.

Thanks, and keep the good work up! :)

Anonymous said...

naku pare mahina nmn sa analysis yang c doy, nagmamagaling lng yan, wla nmng alam sa quezon city politics yan eh, ni nde nmn yan napapabilang sa political family ng quezon city.kulang lng sa pansin yan.

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