Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Walang Recession, Mayroon Term Extension

Doy Cinco /
November 26, 2008
Patuloy na ipinagwawagwagan ng Malakanyang na hindi raw tayo tatamaan ng RESESYON o matinding kahirapang dulot ng kasalukuyang dinaranas na resesyon ng mga mauunlad na kapitalistang bansa ng mundo. Hindi raw tayo tatablan ng dilubyo. Kaya lang, kung may klarong paghahanda sa political survival ni GMA, mukhang hindi handa sa tsunami at bagyong parating na kahirapan ang Malakanyang. Ang sigurado, may pinaplanong charter change, term extension at pagkatay sa political opposition. (Photo:http://www.philstar.com/default.aspx)

Kahit sinasabing may bilyong dolyar na exposure sa mga naluging financial institution; Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns and American International Group (AIG), itinatangging babagsak ang ekonomya ng Pilipinas. At “kung saka-sakaling mahawa raw tayo, ito'y slowdown at hindi recession.” Parang kulang na lang sabihing nasa ibang planeta ang Pilipinas, hindi tayo nakapakat at wala tayo sa orbit ng GLOBALISASYON. Kung sa bagay, maaaring may katotohanan. Gaano ba kalaki ang ating ekonomya, sino at ano ba tayo? SUPERMAID lang naman tayo ng mundo. Gamumo lang ang ating EKONOMYA at stock market kung ikukumpara sa mga bansa sa Asia-Pasipiko.
Ikaw na ang maging presidente, dating economic professor, Master's at Doctorate Degree sa Economics sa Ateneo't UP at classmate pa ni Pres Clinton sa Georgetown University.

Mukhang mas malupit ang ating kasasapitan sa krisis ngayon kung ikukumpara noong dekada 90s. Maliban sa nilulumpo ang ating stock market, ang sektor ng electronics, steel, automobile industries, inaasahang “huhupa” raw ang migration pattern, mula sa kanayunan tungo sa kalunsuran at mula sa kalunsuran/bansa tungong US, middle East at Europa. Inaasahang hihina ang personal spending ngayon pasko hanggang 2010 election, kung saan magiging talamak ang election campaign spending at vote buying.

Kung noon ay 'di gaanong naapektuhan ang unskilled worker, ngayon, pati skilled workers ay mukhang wala na ring ligtas sa RESESYON. Kung dati-rati'y mapili sa trabaho ang mga migrant workers, ngayon, kahit Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia o Nigeria ay susuungin, 'wag lang mamatay ng dilat ang mata sa sariling bayan.

Wala ng mukhang ihaharap ang IMF-WB kung ikukumpara sa mapagpasyang papel nito nuong dekada 90s. Ubligado na ang gubyerno na gumawa ng paraan., tulad ng mga bansang China, Brazil, Russia at India. Dahil sa “REMITTANCE ECONOMY,” sinasabing may sapat na kakayanan na ang gubyerno para raw sa contingency, proyekto't programa at pamumulitika. Kahit pa raw maapektuhan ang ating ini-export sa US at Japan, kayang ma-off set daw ito sa kinang ng dolyar at konsumong magagamit (consumption driven) ng ating mga OFW.

Dahil sa rollback ng petroleum product at LPG, bababa raw ang inflation rate? Inaasahang matutuwa ang OFW sa namimintong paglakas ng dolyar na posibleng umabot hanggang P55.0 / $1.0. Kung magkaganito, bukud sa lalakas daw ang export, sinasabing sisigla rin daw ang lokal na industria, tatangkilikin ang “gawang Pinoy” at hihina ang produktong dayuhan.


Marami na raw nasimulang programa na maaaring ipangtugon sa krisis ang Malakanyang. Maliban sa pump priming / INFRA projects, sa layuning paikutin ang PERA sa komunidad kahalintuld na programang ginamit sa Brazil at Mexico, palalakasin pa ang programang “HUMAN CAPITAL investment” ng gubyerno upang ayudahan ang SUBSIDY - populistang programa sa edukasyon, kagyat na relief sa mahihirap at HEALTH Program. Ipagpapatuloy ang "Conditional Cash Transfer program", ang doleout subsidy na tinutulan ng maraming sektor, CBCP at CARITAS. Dahil palyatibo't mala band aid na pagtugon, nakaumang na naman ang pangungutang sa China at unpopular na institusyong IMF-World Bank.


Handa ba talaga ang gubyerno sa debubyo ng RESESYON? Ang alam ng marami, "handa siyang durugin ang kaaway sa pulitika, handa siyang paralisahin, idislocate at tiris-tirisin ang opposition sa pamamagitan ng pinaghahandaang “emergency power at pinaplanong Martial Law.” Wala ngang resesyon ang Pilipinas, ang mayroon, Charter Change, term extension at postponement ng 2010 election. Umasa pa kayo, baka nga hindi na kayo umabot sa 2010 ?

RelatedStory:
Ekonomiya ng Pilipinas, bumagal sa 9 na buwan
11/27/2008 12:14:30 PM

Bumagal umano ang ekonomiya ng Pilipinas sa third quarter ng kasalukuyang taon kung ikukumpara sa nakalipas na taon dahil epekto ng global financial crisis. Sa inilabas na datos ngayon ng National Statistical Coordination Board (NCSB), nagtala lamang sa 4.6 na porsyento ang pag-angat ng ekonomiya ng bansa o tinatawag na gross domestic product (GDP), kung ihahambing sa 7.1 na porsyento noong 2007 sa unang siyam na buwan.

http://www.bomboradyo.com/newsdetails1.asp?ID=57


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